The Bitcoin environment has been dealing with a lot of uncertainty throughout 2024 as a result of reaching a new ATH level in March only to lose it shortly after. However, the fourth quarter of the year brought in renewed hope for users and had many start looking for where to buy Bitcoin before the prices become even steeper. The BTC value will likely reach six figures next year, something that seemed far-fetched even for the most optimistic analysts not very long ago.

However, investors are still wondering what they can expect from the future and how the values are expected to evolve. Cryptocurrencies are a notoriously volatile trading environment, with prices fluctuating quite a lot, sometimes in the span of just a few days, so predictions are naturally crucial for investors as they create a safer environment for those who want to buy, sell, or trade. Not knowing exactly what is going to happen and how things will evolve can put a lot of pressure on participants, as well as be quite stressful since there’s no way to know if the choices you’re making will pay off in the future or if you’ll end up regretting them instead.

Delicate ground

Bitcoin had a brief but impactful recovery above $63,000 at the beginning of October. The event was part of an attempt to recover the cost basis of the short-term holders, an investor cohort that has been dealing with plenty of challenges over the last few years. During some times, and depending on their positioning in the market, some STHs recorded losses as high as 80 or even 90 percent. Now, most analysts believe that BTC is still on delicate ground, and while the latest recovery shows that the marketplace is still reasonably robust, there are many who are convinced that it will take a little longer still until things begin to truly change.

The critical level of $62,500, showed how Bitcoin struggled to hold on above this level and put a large number of buyers, particularly those who have only recently joined the marketplace, under ever-growing pressure. The area between $47,000 and $52,500 is also shaping up to be a key spot of interest that will differentiate between the bearish and bullish trends. Throughout 2024, the Bitcoin spot price has traded above both prices, suggesting the market remains strong as it continues to provide support for market demand even during times when the price takes a plunge.

200-MA

The Bitcoin price continued trading in the 7-month range, and charts indicate that a serious downside movement could occur. This is somewhat unexpected, considering that October has historically been associated with price growth and development in the crypto space. This is the first time in roughly a decade that this has happened, and Uptober doesn’t deliver the desired results, although investors are still optimistic that a change could occur by the end of the year and propel BTC to achieve six-figure prices by the first quarter of 2025.

Since the beginning of October, the price has gradually consolidated within a $3,400 range, with the 200-day moving average maintaining a solid resistance level that has so far been impossible for Bitcoin to overcome. This isn’t something new, as BTC has been stagnating in the area between $54,000 and $72,000 since losing the all-time high it secured this March. The prolonged event has caused many investors to be uncertain and apprehensive about the future of Bitcoin and where it could go from here. The price volatility levels have also stayed quite low since August 5th.

As of October, the historical volatility index was around 5.48, far below the year-to-date high of nearly 15, which was still going strong only two months prior. In 2021, the value reached a new peak of 42.7. Yet, low historical volatility has some advantages as well, as it means that the price is much less likely to fluctuate dramatically over a short time, suggesting that BTC will inhabit the same range for a little longer so that those who want to keep buying can do so without incurring extra risks.

The end of the fourth quarter for Bitcoin

October has generally been regarded as a great time to be a crypto investor, as the prices tend to surge during this time of the year. October’s propensity for giving cryptocurrencies a boost has led to it being dubbed “Uptober” by digital asset traders, many of whom eagerly await it every single year. The event is even more noteworthy as it is precipitated by the losses of September, a month with the exact opposite reputation, known as a time when price decreases tend to take place. In fact, September 2024 brought along price decreases as well, despite investor expectations and predictions that the price will grow due to the April halving.

However, it seems like the last Uptober wasn’t what investors expected either, as the price struggled to regain its lost value and secure it. Others have pointed out that this is an unfair view of the situation and that anytime Bitcoin climbed during Uptober it did so during the second half of the month, sometimes even in the last week or days. According to this scenario, investors were expecting the prices to surge around October 19th or 20th. Patience is vital when trading crypto and also one of the most challenging things to achieve as an investor.

The end of the final 2024 quarter was also influenced by several macroeconomic factors, such as GDP, the Fed’s decisions regarding inflation, and the PCE index. How they will all play out for the BTC price remains to be seen.

If you’re a crypto investor, remember to keep an eye out for the latest changes and developments in the marketplace. Since digital tokens are so changeable, doing so ensures that you’re less likely to acquire significant losses.

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