On the eve of Euro 2020, Entain, who are one of the leading gaming entertainment and sports betting companies in the world, were getting ready for more than three million football fans across Europe to to place bets on the tournament. To give you a good idea as to how many will be betting on this tournament, they estimate that Euro 2020 will see double the number of sports betting fans than the 2018 World Cup in Russia. This interview with betting site CEOs shows that others also think more will be bet on this tournament than ever before since there is not a lot of new content being produced due to the current pandemic.
France Were the Favorites
Before the Euro 2020 tournament started on the 11th of June, Etain, who own the likes of Bwin, Coral, Ladbrokes, and Eurobet, declared that 28% of their customers across their different sportsbooks had put their money on France to lift the title. After the group stage, all those who had bet on France to be victorious would have been quietly confident as they topped what was called the “Group of Death” and had a favorable Round of 16 game against the Swiss.
With less than ten minutes left on the clock, the French were 3-1 up, so those bettors would have been extremely happy with the way their bet was progressing, but then the French capitulated. In the space of eight minutes, they threw away their two-goal lead and then proceeded to be eliminated on penalties when Kylian Mbappe missed his penalty.
Before the tournament, 12% of bets that Entain had received were for Belgium to win the tournament. They topped their group with relative ease, made it past a tricky Portugal side in the Round of 16, but put in a poor performance against Italy in the quarter-final and were knocked out.
This 12% was the third highest number of bets placed on a team, so who were second before Belgium and after France? Well, it was England, with 20% of total bets received being on them to win the tournament. As it stands, anyone who bet on England to win is still in the game since they have made it to the semi-finals, where they will take on Denmark for the right to play for the trophy on the 11th of July.
With England playing the Danes, it is highly likely that even more bets have been placed on England to win, despite the fact that a match against Denmark is not going to be the same walk in the park that the quarter-final was against Ukraine.
England’s Chances of Winning
After England’s 4-0 defeat of Ukraine in the quarter-finals, Goldman Sachs stated that football is probably coming home. So, what made them make such a prediction? Well, they actually created their own prediction model before the tournament started that takes data from 6,000 games after 1980. It also takes into consideration some other important factors such as a team’s current strength, recent performances, home advantage, and whether a team usually does well at major tournaments.
With Spain winning against the Swiss in a penalty shootout. the first of the two semi-finals will see Spain play Italy, and their model predicts a narrow Spanish win. With Belgium, who were the predictor’s original team to win, no longer in the tournament, the model states that England have a 57.5% chance of making it to Sunday’s showpiece and 31.9% of lifting the prestigious trophy. Spain, according to their model, have a 54.6% chance of getting to the final and are given a 24.6% chance of lifting the trophy. The model gives Italy a 45% chance of making the final and a 22.4% chance of picking up the trophy. Denmark, perhaps not too surprisingly, are big underdogs with 42.3% possibility of getting to the final and a 21.1% chance of winning it.
Their model states that England will win2-in normal time, meaning that they will concede their fist goal of the tournament. The majority of those who bet on England to win the title would not care one bit if they were still in with the chance of winning their wager.
What Are the Sportsbooks Saying?
So, their model thinks that England will lift the trophy on the 11th of July, but what are the most popular football betting sites saying? Well, after a quick look at an odds comparison website shows that bookmakers agree with their prediction model. All the best bookies such as Bet365, Betiton, William Hill, and 888sport have all backed England to win the title.
If you are going to bet on England to win the trophy, providing that they make it past Denmark, you need to select a bookie that offers the best odds so that you can make the highest profit possible with your bet. To help with this, below you can find a table that has the odds for each team to win the tournament.
As well as betting on the winner of this competition, there are some other interesting markets that you should have a look at such as the Golden Boot winner of the UEFA Euro 2020 football tournament. With just three games left to play, Cristiano Ronaldo and Patrik Schick have five goals apiece, but both are no longer participating in the competition. Raheem Sterling, Harry Kane, and Kasper Dolberg have scored three times, while Ciro Immobile, Alvaro Morata, and Ferrán Torres have scored twice. They all have at least one more match to add to their tally. Below you can see a table with the different odds for the for the Euro 2020 top scorer.
Players to Keep an Eye on in the Semi-Final
All players for the four teams that are left have played well, but there are some players that have stood out from the crowd, and we shall take a look at these now.
Harry Kane: After England’s first three games at the tournament, Kane had not scored one goal and there were people calling for him to be dropped. However, class is permanent and in the last two matches he has netted three goals to put himself back in with a shout of winning the Golden Boot. The Danish will be marking him closely because they know that he will punish any lapse in concentration.
Raheem Sterling: He often finds himself getting plenty of stick, but anyone who says he has had a rubbish campaign this time around clearly does not know much about football. He has three goals and one assist to his name, and you can be certain that the Danish players will not be taking him lightly at all.
Jorginho: His performances have probably gone under the radar a little bit at this tournament, but his passing skills and calmness on the ball have been vital in helping Italy progress to the last four. He provides extra cover for their defense and chips in with an average of 2.6 interceptions a game. In the five games that he has played, he has successful pass percentage of 94%, and Italy will need him to keep it up against a talented Spanish team.
Ferran Torres: Spain could not unlock the Swiss defense in their quarter-final, despite the fact that they had a man up for 15 minutes of normal time and 30 minutes of extra-time. The Spanish will have to try something a little different against a class Italian team and their inspiration could come from the wing. Ferran Torres, who plays for City in the Premier League, is a useful outlet in counter-attacking situations. Leonardo Spinazzola, who has been excellent, is out of the tournament with an injury, meaning that Emerson will likely start at left back, although he has not had much game time over the last year. Torres’ dribbling skills and speed could give the Spanish the upper edge here.
Kasper Dolberg: It is safe to say that Dolberg has been an important cog in the Danish machine. The forward, who players in Ligue 1 with Nice, scored two in their 4-0 rout of Wales and scored what turned out to be the winning goal against the Czech Republic. He has been super composed on the ball and is really food in the air. The English defenders will be wary of his talent and will be looking to prevent him linking up with Mikkel Damsgaard, who has been impressive too.